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November 5, 2009: The guarded optimism reported by companies and consumers regarding the economy is not necessarily aligned with many market specialists. It is likely that the first quarter of 2010 will be scary for investors. Expect to see tactical decisons continue to dominate boardrooms through the first 6 months of 2010. Except for a spring housing rise, spending will remain in check until summer 2010. Keep costs in control. Evaluate what changes you are making now, which you should continue after the market starts its real recovery. Very good employees will be available for hire, when it is time to grow, but remember, many of them have missed the culture shifts within companies, and will return to work with old expectations. Be ready to train well, and hold your ground against new, smart people who want to use outdated methods to perform their jobs.
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July 15, 2009: The early winners from the stimulus measures have been announced, Goldman Sachs and the U.S. government. This does not mean they are the only winners, just the first, and certainly the largest. Small companies will start to crop up en masse as unemployed managers and executives test their entrpreneurial skills. Some of these companies will offer and deliver novel and important new products and services. Just as ice storms only leave the healthiest trees unharmed, so a depression will only leave the most productive people unharmed. Look for opportunity in small business support services, everything from incorporation services, to lending, to sales and marketing, to outsourced manufacturing, to computer consulting, and more. Watch for customer loyalty to be tested by new alternatives. Your organization must be seen as an innovator. Establish your brand as a worthy recipient of customer dollars! We continue to predict a stronger U.S. economy developing at the end of 2009. We also predict a strong housing market in Spring 2010, and an increasing demand for life insurance (a great leading indicator) at that time.
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| January 26, 2009: Change has come. It started in November, 2007 when market indicators clearly signalled a coming downturn. Similar to those negative indicators, we now have some positive indicators. Activity in home refinancing is robust. Home prices have not dropped significantly in the past 45 days (a possible sign of the bottom). Panic regarding market declines is slowly giving way to acceptance and strategic planning for the future. Plans generally result in favorable results, compared to reactive impulses, which have more unfavorable results. It is currently popular to appear austere, which means we should see less use of personal credit, net, even after greater credit restrictions. Many bystanders in the economy will engage, as it becomes more popular to take part in recovery than to either sit at home, hang out at the club, or to just talk about the need for action. We will experience real strenghtening in the economy by the end of 2009, including a faux rally near the end of the year, followed by a quick correction, then strong growth in 2010. |
| August 15, 2008: If the economic downturn has taken you by surprise, you are not alone. Few people looked past individual leading indicators which, on their own, were simply disappointing, but not catastrophic. In reality, there are many influences acting in harmony to hobble the economy. It is not over, and will not show meaningful signs of recovery until the end of 2009. Whoever is President at the time, will take credit for the turnaround. For your business, identify your good customers and nurture them. Identify your best employees, and nurture them, as well. When the economy turns around, it will be noticable, and swift. Look for this key consumer confidence leading indicator: When people feel they need to buy more life insurance, it is time to start ramping up your business. |
March 1, 2008: In Novmber 2007, we predicted a rise in unemployment with specific ramifications which would change the competitive landscape. Lower employment rates will now cause business inefficiencies to become evident. In order to keep your customers and brand intact, discover and solve your service and performance problems, right away. Be aggressive at changing your business processes and expectations to account for leaner staffing, and the political backstabbing which ensues during times of staff reductions. |
| February 1, 2008: U.S. layoffs are well under way. While government-provided economic stimuli may encourage slightly more spending by consumers for a short time, profits will be used to offset past losses and to bolster coffers. They will never influence U.S. employment. Competition for consumer spending will translate into competition for business spending. Correct: "competition" was used twice in the last sentence. The current focus should be on strategies to preserve customers, B2B and B2C. |
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November 1, 2007: Alert regarding current U.S. market status: Global financial and industrial indicators foretell of a shrinking domestic workforce size, and discontinuation of select products and services by domestic secondary and tertiary industries. This will result in unemployment, fewer available discretionary consumer dollars, and higher per-unit pricing for available goods and services. Customer perceptions of product and service value will be central to customer retention. We recommend our clients be prepared for the competitive effects to be felt as early as March, 2008. |